房地产2026年展望:徐图进取 静候机遇

中金公司
Nov 12, 2025

观点聚焦投资建议我国本轮房地产周期转升的关键在供给侧的库存水平调节。从货币理论和美日经验来看,地产周期的研判须关注货币政策、需求刚性、收入走势、杠杆使用、供给弹性五类关键变量。我国本轮房地产下行周期的关键在于2015-2020 年间新房“超买”形成的居民端二手房库存和企业端同样不低的新房库存,头部城市相对偏高的房价收入比也有一定影响。当前住房支付能力已得到明显修复,但库存去化周期仍相对偏高,在供给...

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