【券商聚焦】第一上海维持香港交易所(00388)买入评级指当前的估值水平具备坚实的基本面支撑

金吾财讯

Nov 11

金吾财讯 | 第一上海发研报指，9M25香港交易所(00388)实现收入及其他收益219亿港元(同比+37%)；归母净利润134亿港元(同比+45%)；EBITDA为172亿港元(同比+48%)；EBITDA利润率为79%(同比+5pct)。从各个业务板块来看，交易费及交易系统使用费/结算及交收费/联交所上市费/存托管及代理人服务费/市场数据费/其他收入在9M25分别达78/53/13/11/9/14亿港元，同比变化分别为+57%/+66%/+17%/+25%/+8%/+10%。该机构认为港交所当前的估值水平具备坚实的基本面支撑。其核心业务——现货市场、衍生品市场及互联互通机制——均呈现高速增长态势，尤其是港股通，显示出内地资金对香港市场的持续青睐。在战略层面，港交所持续推进市场架构优化，如实施最低上落价位下调、探讨缩短结算周期、推出新产品如恒生生物科技指数期货等，这些举措有望进一步提升市场效率和产品多样性，增强长期竞争力。考虑到港交所独特的市场垄断地位、与市场成交量的高度关联性，以及其业绩在2025年展现出的强劲增长动能，该机构认为其应享有高于市场平均的估值溢价。参考其历史PE区间及可比公司估值，并综合其增长前景，该机构给予港交所2026年38倍PE的估值倍数，对应目标价550港元，较前一收盘价有28%的涨幅，维持买入评级。

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