【券商聚焦】中国银河:与整体社零增速持续边际下行形成鲜明对比,高端消费Q2以来需求正在持续改善

金吾财讯
Nov 11, 2025

金吾财讯 | 中国银河证券发研报指,传统高端消费:需求企稳,财富效应与供给优化驱动边际改善。与整体社零增速持续边际下行形成鲜明对比,高端消费Q2以来需求正在持续改善:1)澳门博彩消费:6-10月GGR增速提升至双位数,VIP需求为市场增长主要驱动力;2)奢侈品:LVMH、爱马仕欧莱雅Q3中国区销售均现改善,其中LVMH中国大陆销售同比转正(中至高个位数);爱马仕中国区销售轻微改善,其亚太(除日本外地区)销售增速环比提升1pct;欧莱雅北亚地区受益中国市场恢复,Q3销售同比+4.7%,为2023年以来首次实现正增长。当前高端可选消费的边际改善,主要受中国内地及香港股市的财富效应,以及贵金属、大宗商品涨价驱动,考虑到全球流动性未来进一步放宽,我们认为这一效应可进一步驱动2026年高端消费需求复苏。

此外,十五五建议提出放宽服务消费准入、清理消费不合理限制等措施,有望进一步提升当前有消费能力人群的消费意愿。以免税行业为例,10月30日财政部等部委印发《关于完善免税店政策支持提振消费的通知》,允许市内免税线上预订、回国提货,大幅提升消费者在市内免税店的购物体验,此前海南省也进一步放宽岛民免税购物限制。

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