金吾财讯 | 中信建投发研报指，近年来围绕粗钢总量控制的政策较多，但效果不如2021年那般明显，行业逐渐内卷严重，盈利能力恶化，防止内卷改善价格依然是明年的重要任务。2026年铁矿市场供给相对过剩，预计年均衡价格在90美元/吨（CFR中国），较2025年下跌约12%，带来吨钢盈利改善约130元。假设明年减产4000万吨，则全年粗钢产量9.45亿吨，行业盈利修复，吨毛利有望修复到300元左右。假设明年减产2500万吨，则全年粗钢产量9.6亿吨，吨毛利有望维持在今年均值0-100元左右。假设明年减产1000万吨，在地产及出口预期下滑的情况下，将会出现供过于求的情况，行业利润恶化，内卷加剧，行业经营持续困难，行业机会更多来自于电力设备材料领域，相关特钢持续迎来发展。
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