ChainCatcher 消息，据 CoinDesk 报道，MARA Holdings 首席执行官 Fred Thiel 称，比特币挖矿行业正步入一个艰难时期，竞争加剧、能源需求上升、利润缩水。他表示，比特币挖矿是零和博弈，算力增加使挖矿难度和能源成本上升，利润率被压缩。
行业日益残酷，只有获低成本、可靠能源或采用新商业模式的矿企能生存。不少挖矿公司转向人工智能或高性能计算基础设施领域，一些则被低成本部署自有硬件的参与者挤出市场。Thiel 警告，2028 年下一次比特币减半后，矿企生存环境会更严峻，区块奖励将降至略高于 1.5 枚比特币，除非交易费用上涨或币价飙升，否则挖矿经济难持续。
比特币的设计理念是，交易费用最终将取代区块补贴，但这种情况并未发生。目前交易费用总体较低，虽有短暂飙升也难取代区块补贴。这种环境下，小型矿企面临着巨大的压力。大型矿企通过控制能源来源和投资人工智能专用基础设施来适应环境，而更为精简的矿企则可能被迫关闭。
Thiel 预计市场将自我调节，他表示：“到 2028 年，矿企要么成为电力生产商，要么被电力生产商收购，要么与电力生产商合作。”
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