东方证券：维持京东集团-SW(09618)“买入”评级目标价190.96港元

智通财经

Nov 12, 2025

智通财经APP获悉，东方证券发布研报称，维持京东集团-SW(09618)“买入”评级，上调2025-2027年预测收入为13312/14094/14856亿元(原2025-2027年预测为13276/13967/14642亿元)，经调整归母净利润为271/438/525亿元(原2025-2027年预测为228/436/520亿元)。参考可比公司，给予公司2026年零售+新业务9XPE估值，加上公司对外股权投资价值计算得公司目标市值为5546亿元，对应每股股价190.96港元(人民币兑港币汇率1.098)。

该行预计，京东零售分部25Q3实现收入2486.7亿元，yoy+10.5%,，主要系Q3外卖旺季流量增长给主站电商带来的协同效应加强，部分被国补政策基数拉平所抵消(24年8月底开始)，因此预期同比提速而环比降速，预计主站用户及购频环比Q2保持接近增长趋势。25Q3 GMV延续双位数增长趋势，1PGMV因国补基数拉平影响预计有所放缓慢，且由于外卖转化的下单以日百为主，预计3PGMV仍环比加速维持双位数高增长。利润端，预计Q3京东零售分部实现营业利润136.7亿元，OPM为5.5%，主要系外卖协同效应下主站流量增长使买量及C补结构有所优化。整体京东零售稳中向好，在外卖UE优化下有望凭借协同效应带来的流量中短期延续稳健增长趋势。

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