Odaily星球日报讯 机构分析师表示，美国股市看似势不可挡，但投资者不应自满，因为有多项指标表明这次反弹比看起来更脆弱。从长远来看，美股的上涨正变得近乎抛物线式。直的市场走势毫不畏惧——这通常是一个警告信号。然而，预测市场顶部是一个徒劳的游戏。与往往戏剧性地呈现 V 形的市场底部不同，顶部是一个可能持续数月的长期过程。但这并不意味着没有迹象表明顶部正在形成，而且投资者应该开始对这次反弹更警惕，或至少是怀疑，并减少贪婪。首先，标普 500 指数中创出一年新低的股票数量却一直在增加。事实上，这种背离已达到前所未有的极端水平。其次，潜在准备出售股票的人也很多。美国家庭部门持有的股票占其金融资产的比例从未如此之高。当家庭大量买入股票时，往往会将估值推高到可持续水平之上，并导致一段长期回报不佳的时期。这是在这个市场中保持谨慎的另一个原因。(金十)
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