Odaily星球日报讯 截止目前，Polymarket 上预测美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点概率为 73%，维持利率不变的概率为 25%。但据 CME“美联储观察”，其预测美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点概率为 66.9%，维持利率不变的概率 33.1%。
CME“美联储观察”工具对美联储下一次利率调整做出预测的主体是专业的利率交易者，而 Polymarket 上对美联储下一次利率调整的预测则是不同交易者通过真实下注显示的群体博弈结果。
Odaily星球日报讯 截止目前，Polymarket 上预测美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点概率为 73%，维持利率不变的概率为 25%。但据 CME“美联储观察”，其预测美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点概率为 66.9%，维持利率不变的概率 33.1%。
CME“美联储观察”工具对美联储下一次利率调整做出预测的主体是专业的利率交易者，而 Polymarket 上对美联储下一次利率调整的预测则是不同交易者通过真实下注显示的群体博弈结果。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.