金吾财讯 | “三桶油”震荡走强，截至发稿，中国海洋石油(00883)涨4.06%，中国石油股份(00857)涨2.82%，中国石油化工股份(00386)涨2.33%。
消息面上，日前，OPEC+主产八国宣布12月将进一步增产13.7万桶/日，同时由于季节性因素暂停2026年1至3月的增产。民生证券指出，由于OPEC+于26年一季度暂停增产超市场预期，叠加美国对俄罗斯的制裁影响，当前市场悲观情绪好转，但对需求较弱、供应过剩的情绪仍在，预计油价短期依然以震荡为主线。中金公司发研报指，原油和农产品作为第二梯队，在价格超跌后，成本反馈或提供底部支撑，供应风险和需求增长或带来反弹机会。其中，OPEC+增产在途，石油市场现货供应过剩仍为基准情形，与此同时，北美页岩油的成本挑战已经开始，预期非OPEC供应扩张周期或在明年下半年迎来中长期拐点，有望为油价中枢提供趋势突破机会。
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