小摩:内房股近期升势因政策预期升温 香港收租股风险回报更佳

智通财经
Yesterday

智通财经APP获悉,摩根大通发布研报称,过去三个交易日,中国内地及香港地产板块分别上升7%及5%,表现跑赢同期恒生指数3%升幅。

该行认为内房股升势主要由于政策预期升温所推动,跑赢大市表现可能持续至11月底或12月的下一次政府会议。若届时没有新的政策叙事或措施,该板块可能再度落后。不过,目前行业基本面显示新政策支持的概率正在上升。该行首选仍然是华润置地(01109)、华润万象生活(01209)及中国金茂(00817)。在政策带动的反弹中,该行认为龙湖集团(00960)具备最佳风险回报比。

对于香港地产股,该行认为升势由于对楼市复苏信心增强。虽然该行对楼市仍持正面看法,但住宅类股估值已完全反映全面复苏预期,例如新鸿基地产(00016)若计入股息调整后股价已达历史高位,而二手楼价指数仍较高峰低26%。现阶段,该行认为地产收租股的风险回报更佳。首选为太古地产(01972)、恒隆地产(00101)、领展房产基金(00823)及九龙仓置业(01997)。开发商方面,该行较青睐信和置业(00083)及恒基地产(00012)。

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