分析:政府停摆结束并未终止不确定性,美债波动率指数跳升至一个月高点

Blockbeats
Nov 13, 2025

BlockBeats 消息,11 月 13 日,美国国债价格大致稳定,但波动率指标显示未来几天可能出现剧烈波动,此前美国走出了史上最长的政府停摆。10 年期美国国债收益率保持坚挺,周四报 4.08%,而根据与政策会议日期挂钩的掉期数据显示,货币市场对下个月美联储降息 25 个基点的预期大致存在分歧。然而,衡量债券市场波动性的 ICE BofA MOVE Index 在最近触及四年低点后,已跳升至一个月来的最高水平,这表明政府即将发布的大量经济数据可能会刺激市场采取行动。

这个价值 30 万亿美元的市场中的投资者,一直在等待政府经济报告恢复公布,以获取有关美联储在今年最后一次会议上将利率带向何方的线索。荷兰国际集团高级欧洲利率策略师 Michiel Tukker 说,鉴于市场尚未完全确定美联储的下一步行动,任何新的通胀和就业数据都可能推动曲线的前端波动。(金十)

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