金属行业2026年投资策略:供需与降息共振 静待盈利与估值双升

国信证券
Nov 14, 2025

工业金属:价格重心继续上移,公司盈利提升铜:全球第二大铜矿Grasberg停产让市场不再畏高8万元/吨以上的铜价,但高铜价并未让资本开支显著增加,矿业公司尤其国外公司对绿地项目仍然非常谨慎。普遍认为2026年全球铜短缺幅度在1%左右,2027年短缺幅度在0.5%左右,短缺幅度收窄主要是预期Grasberg铜矿以及Panama铜矿全面复产。铝:电解铝盈利将进一步增加。中国电解铝产能利用率已经达到...

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