牧业大周期:行业大反转预计在即。1)牛肉与牛奶双品种有望反转:国内肉牛产能去化级别或及2019 年猪周期,2025 年已迎来价格拐点,后续有望持续上涨至2027 年。国内原奶价格已累计下跌近4 年,持续亏损带来产能出清压力,同时肉奶比价已至历史高位,后续有望推动奶牛淘汰加快,实现“肉奶共振”。2)国内与国外两个市场协同涨价:海外牛肉价格在主产区减产推动下,已进入上行周期,叠加进口调控,未来国内进口...
Source Link牧业大周期:行业大反转预计在即。1)牛肉与牛奶双品种有望反转:国内肉牛产能去化级别或及2019 年猪周期,2025 年已迎来价格拐点,后续有望持续上涨至2027 年。国内原奶价格已累计下跌近4 年,持续亏损带来产能出清压力,同时肉奶比价已至历史高位,后续有望推动奶牛淘汰加快,实现“肉奶共振”。2)国内与国外两个市场协同涨价:海外牛肉价格在主产区减产推动下,已进入上行周期,叠加进口调控,未来国内进口...
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