汇丰经济学家在最新报告中指出，因需求增速持续高于供给端，澳大利亚储备银行下一步政策调整更可能是加息而非降息。其分析认为，当前经济运行处于（甚至略微超出）产能上限，叠加失业率低于充分就业水平、核心通胀率位于2-3%目标区间上限及房市升温等因素，降息逻辑难以成立。

　　尽管短期内澳洲联储可能选择按兵不动，寄望于就业市场逐步宽松带来更多通缩效应，但经济学家警告称“最终市场会发现当前4.35%的现金利率已被过度下调”。汇丰预测，该行将在2026年全年维持基准利率不变后，于2027年初启动加息周期。

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责任编辑：王许宁

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