What Conditions Does Bitcoin Still Need to Rise?

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Nov 20, 2025

Last night, NVIDIA delivered a stunning report card.In the third quarter, revenue reached $57 billion, a whopping 62% year-over-year increase, with net profit soaring 65% to $31.9 billion. This marks ...

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This marks ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.theblockbeats.info/en/news/60256\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"theblockbeats_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Conditions Does Bitcoin Still Need to Rise?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Conditions Does Bitcoin Still Need to Rise?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-20 11:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.theblockbeats.info/en/news/60256><strong>Blockbeats</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Last night, NVIDIA delivered a stunning report card.In the third quarter, revenue reached $57 billion, a whopping 62% year-over-year increase, with net profit soaring 65% to $31.9 billion. This marks ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.theblockbeats.info/en/news/60256\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4213","symbol_name":"石油与天然气的勘探与生产","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.theblockbeats.info/en/news/60256","article_id":"2584342909","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"theblockbeats_highlight","url":"https://www.theblockbeats.info/en/news/60256","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2584342909","pubTimestamp":1763608560,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"theblockbeats_highlight","name":"Blockbeats"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Last night, NVIDIA delivered a stunning report card.In the third quarter, revenue reached $57 billion, a whopping 62% year-over-year increase, with net profit soaring 65% to $31.9 billion. This marks NVIDIA's twelfth consecutive quarter of beating expectations. Following the earnings report, the stock price surged 4-6% in after-hours trading, continued to rise by 5.1% in pre-market trading the next day, directly adding approximately $22 billion to the company's market value and also lifting Nasdaq futures by 1.5-2%.One would expect that with such positive market sentiment, Bitcoin, the digital gold, would bask in some of that glory. However, reality delivered a slap in the face—Bitcoin not only failed to rise but instead experienced a fall, slipping to $91,363, a drop of about 3%.NVIDIA Soars, Bitcoin Falls?It has suffered a significant blow to risk aversion sentiment. As a","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"theblockbeats.info","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4213":"石油与天然气的勘探与生产","BK4588":"碎股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","CPI":"IQ Real Return ETF","TGA":"Transglobe Energy Corp","BK4594":"比特币ETF概念","BK4601":"加密货币现货ETF"},"translate_title":"比特币还需要什么条件才能崛起？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TGA":1,"MBTmain":1.5,"CPI":1},"content_text":"Last night, NVIDIA delivered a stunning report card.In the third quarter, revenue reached $57 billion, a whopping 62% year-over-year increase, with net profit soaring 65% to $31.9 billion. This marks NVIDIA's twelfth consecutive quarter of beating expectations. Following the earnings report, the stock price surged 4-6% in after-hours trading, continued to rise by 5.1% in pre-market trading the next day, directly adding approximately $22 billion to the company's market value and also lifting Nasdaq futures by 1.5-2%.One would expect that with such positive market sentiment, Bitcoin, the digital gold, would bask in some of that glory. However, reality delivered a slap in the face—Bitcoin not only failed to rise but instead experienced a fall, slipping to $91,363, a drop of about 3%.NVIDIA Soars, Bitcoin Falls?Those who once saw Bitcoin as a safe haven investment are likely now feeling uneasy.Initially packaged as a \"weapon against inflation\" and a \"safe haven in times of economic anxiety,\" Bitcoin's current performance resembles more that of a high-risk tech stock rather than a safe-haven asset like physical gold.The data is clear: following a 26% crash from its historical high in early October, Bitcoin's price now sits at levels seen at the beginning of the year. In other words, it has been a wasted year.Meanwhile, during the same period, real gold surged by 55% in 2025. The psychological gap for Bitcoin holders is truly significant.The factors driving the gold price increase are quite evident: potential interest rate cuts, a weakening US dollar, increased market volatility, and uncertain economic prospects. Based on traditional Bitcoin logic, these conditions should have boosted Bitcoin's price. However, the reality is quite the opposite.Mark Shulz, an economist at the CME, pointed out as early as May this year that starting from 2020, the correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks has turned positive and has remained so. More crucially, the amount of Bitcoin flowing into the hands of institutional investors through ETFs and publicly traded cryptocurrency companies in the past year has reached a historic high.In other words, Bitcoin is becoming increasingly \"mainstream,\" but the cost is that it is also becoming more like a traditional risk asset.Of course, the reason for the situation where \"NVIDIA soars, but Bitcoin falls\" lies in the flow of funds.NVIDIA benefits from the kind of nailed-down, deterministic demand in the AI field. CEO Jensen Huang emphasized that \"computational demand continues to accelerate,\" and the newly launched Blackwell chip sales are \"off the charts.\" The visibility of $500 billion in orders directly dispelled the market's concerns about an AI bubble. Super-scale cloud service providers, namely giants like Amazon and Microsoft, have spent over $380 billion in capital expenditures this year, with most of that money flowing to NVIDIA.And what about Bitcoin? It has suffered a significant blow to risk aversion sentiment. As a \"high Beta risk asset,\" it is at the forefront in an environment of liquidity tightening. In just one week, the price has dropped by 12.5%. Cryptocurrency ETFs saw a net outflow of $867 million on November 13, with long-term holders starting to sell off. The dormant Bitcoin supply has decreased from 8 million coins at the beginning of the year to 7.32 million coins.So what conditions does Bitcoin still need to rise?Although the current situation is not very optimistic, there is still hope for a turnaround. To see Bitcoin take off again, it may require several key conditions to align.Liquidity Injection After the U.S. Government ReopensThe 43-day government shutdown officially ended on November 18. This shutdown affected 1.25 million federal employees, resulting in approximately $16 billion in lost wages and causing the consumer confidence index to drop to a three-year low of 50.4.Now that the government has reopened, liquidity injection has become critical.Here's a concept to explain—TGA (Treasury General Account), which is the U.S. Treasury's primary operational account at the Federal Reserve. All government receipts and disbursements go through this account. When the TGA balance increases, it means funds are flowing from the market to the government, reducing market liquidity; conversely, when the TGA balance decreases, government spending injects funds into the market, increasing liquidity.Data shows that during the 43-day period from October 1 to November 12, 2025, the TGA balance continued to accumulate, reaching a high of $959 billion on November 14. This level is well above the cash position the Treasury usually maintains, mainly because spending was constrained during the government shutdown, coupled with ongoing debt issuance, leading to a significant accumulation of cash in the Treasury's account.Currently, based on the TGA data, there is no significant decrease.Based on the reopening of the government on November 13, 2025, and historical experience, it is expected that in the first week, government employees will first receive back pay, injecting about $16 billion into the economy, with a relatively minor impact. That means it's hard to see a large influx of liquidity before November 20.Another 1-2 weeks later, around early December, the TGA will operate normally, daily government spending will resume, seasonal tax inflows will occur, and the TGA balance will start to fluctuate significantly and release large amounts, which will lead to a noticeable improvement in liquidity in the market.With increased interbank liquidity and ample institutional funds, it also means that Bitcoin, as a risk asset, will receive inflows, leading to an uptrend.The experience from early 2019 provides important reference. At that time, the U.S. government also went through a prolonged shutdown, from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019, lasting 35 days. During the government shutdown, the TGA balance also accumulated significantly, reaching $413 billion on January 29, 2019. After the government resumed operation, the Treasury Department quickly increased spending. In just one month from January 29 to March 1, the TGA balance decreased by $211 billion, with these funds flowing into the financial system, bringing about significant liquidity improvement. This drove the stock market and Bitcoin to rise by 8.5% and 35%, respectively, within 30 days after reopening.Comparing the current situation, the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance in November 2025 reached $959 billion, much higher than the $413 billion in 2019, indicating a more substantial potential liquidity release.The Fed's Policy ShiftSpeaking of the Fed, it is another big boss influencing Bitcoin's direction.The latest Fed meeting minutes show that officials are severely divided on whether another consecutive rate cut is needed. Most officials believe that further rate cuts may exacerbate inflation risks. White House economic adviser Hassett even admitted to \"losing control of inflation.\"Trump, once again in a fit of \"incompetent rage,\" directly attacked Fed Chair Powell, saying, \"I'd like to fire him; he's extremely incompetent.\"According to CME's \"FedWatch,\" the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December is only 36.2%, with a high probability of 63.8% for unchanged rates.What's worse, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has confirmed that household data for October (used to calculate key statistical data such as the unemployment rate) cannot be retrospectively collected. Therefore, the October employment report will not be released, and these nonfarm payroll data will be included in the November employment report, which will be published on December 16. This means that the Fed will not receive crucial employment data at its final meeting of the year.In addition, as U.S. bond yields rise, the yield on major maturities is rising across the board, with the 10-year yield up by 2.5 basis points. Market expectations for a December rate cut have been largely dashed, with the rate cut probability falling to around 31%.However, if we take a longer view, the situation may not be so pessimistic. The delayed November employment data will be released on December 16, and if the data is weak, it may still support expectations for the next round of interest rate cuts, around January 27 next year. Currently, the probability of a rate cut is 48%, the highest for a meeting in 2026.Looking at a broader perspective, although the Fed's attitude is ambiguous, other major dovish central banks globally have already taken action. This undercurrent may become an important driver for Bitcoin's rise.For example, the ECB is currently maintaining its deposit facility rate at 2.00%, but there is a high possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, as inflation has fallen to 2.1%, close to the target level. Here is an interesting fact: historically, there is an 0.85 correlation between ECB rate cuts and Bitcoin's rise. Why? Because the eurozone's loose liquidity spills over into the global market, increasing overall risk appetite.Economic Rebound is EvidentThe current state of the U.S. economy presents a very delicate balance—there are both bright spots and concerns.In August, the trade deficit narrowed significantly, dropping 23.8% to $596 billion, surpassing the market's expectation of $610 billion. This was mainly due to a 6.6% decline in commodity imports under the tariff effect. This change is expected to contribute 1.5-2.0 percentage points to third-quarter GDP growth, raising growth estimates to 3.8%. Sounds good, right? But the problem is, this improvement comes at the expense of imports and may have long-term effects on the supply chain and consumption.Although the 43-day government shutdown has ended, the damage it caused is still lingering. $160 billion in wage losses, a consumer confidence index falling to a three-year low of 50.4, and the CBO predicting a 1.5 percentage point GDP loss in the fourth quarter—these numbers reflect the true economic pain.Food inflation is also critical; what used to cost $100 now costs $250, with even worse quality. Just as the egg price surge has eased, American's beloved beef is facing a new wave of inflation.The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on October 24 shows that roast beef and beef steak prices increased by 18.4% and 16.6% respectively year-on-year. According to USDA data, retail prices of ground beef have soared to $6.1 per pound, setting a new record. Compared to three years ago, beef prices have cumulatively risen by over 50%.Additionally, coffee prices have risen by 18.9%, natural gas prices by 11.7%, electricity prices by 5.1%, and car repair costs by 11.5%. Many American young people who are in debt due to university education are facing even greater pressure due to further increases in living costs.The \"K-Shaped Economic Warning Sign\" may be the most concerning trend in the current US economic situation. Nearly 25% of American households are living paycheck to paycheck, with the wages of the low-income group stagnating, while the AI investment-driven high-income group (which accounts for 50% of consumption) continues to benefit. The risk of economic differentiation is sharply rising.Furthermore, tariff policies continue to weigh on the global export-driven economies, with contractions seen in Japan, Switzerland, and Mexico in the third quarter. This global economic chain reaction will eventually reach the US market, affecting investors' risk appetite.However, if the US government can improve the US economy thereafter, various assets including Bitcoin will see an opportunity for growth.Institutional Money FlowIf the previous conditions are considered \"timing,\" then institutional money is the \"people\" factor. This may be the most direct and immediately effective catalyst.It must be said that the current data is not very optimistic. From November 13-19, ETFs saw a net outflow of $2 billion (approximately 20,000 bitcoins), the largest weekly outflow since February of this year. The current assets under management (AUM) stand at $1.223 billion, accounting for 6.6% of Bitcoin's total market cap.What does this mean? Institutional investors are withdrawing, and at a significant pace.After all, in the current macro environment, institutional funds are also facing multiple pressures: first, severe liquidity stratification. The tech/AI sector is receiving ample funds, traditional safe-haven assets like gold are performing well, while the liquidity of pure risky assets such as cryptocurrencies is drying up. The money hasn't disappeared, it has just gone elsewhere.Moreover, the typical behavior pattern of institutional investors and fund managers is often shaped by an incentive structure of \"avoiding mistakes.\" The industry's evaluation system focuses more on \"not falling behind peers\" rather than \"whether excess returns have been achieved.\" Within such a framework, taking risks contrary to mainstream views often carries a much higher cost than the potential gains.Therefore, most managers tend to maintain a position structure consistent with the mainstream market. For example, if Bitcoin experiences an overall pullback and a fund manager still maintains a significant long position, the retreat will be amplified as a \"judgment error,\" leading to criticism far outweighing the recognition brought by the same magnitude of gains. Ultimately, under such institutional constraints, \"conservatism\" becomes a rational choice.However, history tells us that the flow of institutional funds often suddenly reverses at a critical point. So where is this critical point? There are three distinct signals:Signal One: Consecutive 3-Day Net InflowThis is the most important signal. Historical data shows that when ETF funds flow in the positive direction and maintain a net inflow for 3 consecutive days, Bitcoin tends to rise by an average of 60-70% within 60-100 days.Why is this so magical? Because institutional investment is the most obvious area of the \"herd effect.\" Once the trend reverses, subsequent funds will follow like falling dominoes. That's how the rally at the beginning of 2024 started.Signal Two: Daily Inflow Exceeding $500 MillionThis represents a signal of large institutional participation. In October 2024, a weekly inflow of $32.4 billion directly propelled Bitcoin to break through its all-time high. Retail investors simply cannot achieve that level of momentum.What does $500 million in a day mean? It's equivalent to giants like BlackRock and Fidelity deciding to increase their positions simultaneously. Such influx of funds often comes with a clear macro judgment—they see signals that ordinary investors cannot.Signal Three: AUM Ratio Rebounds to Above 8%Currently, with an AUM of $122.3 billion, the ratio to Bitcoin's market value is 6.6%, which historically is at a relatively low level. During the peak of 2024, this ratio reached 8-9%. When this ratio starts to rise, it indicates that institutions are not only buying Bitcoin but also doing so at a pace that exceeds the rate at which Bitcoin's price is rising.So, under what circumstances will institutional funds flow back?Basically, as mentioned earlier: when a clear interest rate cut signal from the Federal Reserve appears; U.S. economic data clarifies; global central banks coordinate to ease policy in resonance; technical breakthrough of key resistance levels, etc.Possible Timing of the RallyAfter discussing all these conditions, what most people are probably concerned about is: when will the price actually rise?While no one can predict the market accurately, based on the timetable of macro events, we can identify several key points in time.December 10th: FOMC MeetingThis is the last Federal Reserve meeting of the year and the most anticipated event in the market.If an interest rate cut does occur, Bitcoin may experience a sharp rally; if not, it may see another dip.Here's a crucial point: even if there is no interest rate cut, if the Federal Reserve sends a dovish signal (such as emphasizing \"maintaining flexibility\" and \"closely monitoring employment data\"), it will also support market sentiment. Conversely, if there is no interest rate cut and the stance is firm, be prepared for short-term pressure.December 16: Delayed November Employment DataThis data will include a full picture of both October and November and will confirm the true trend in the labor market.If the data for two consecutive months is weak, the probability of an interest rate cut in early 2026 will significantly increase. This would provide mid-term support for Bitcoin. If the data is mixed or contradictory, the market may continue to struggle, and a range-bound pattern will persist.The certainty of the data release is high, but the quality of the data itself may be less reliable (government shutdown causing statistical disruptions), so market reactions may be more based on interpretation rather than the data itself.Late December to Year-End: Liquidity's \"Traditional Peak Season\"This is an interesting seasonal pattern. Historically, from late December to the New Year, institutional investors will engage in year-end rebalancing, and the reduced holiday trading volume will amplify price fluctuations.If the previous events align favorably, there may be a year-end \"Santa Claus Rally.\" However, one should also be cautious of the \"sell the news\" effect—profit-taking after positive news is priced in.First Quarter of 2026: Global Synchronized Liquidity Easing \"Big Picture\"This is the most imaginative time frame.If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in December or January next year, the ECB and PBOC continue to maintain loose monetary policies, a situation of globally synchronized liquidity improvement will emerge. In this scenario, Bitcoin may experience a surge similar to the one in 2020—from a low of $3,800 in March to $28,000 by year-end, a gain of over 600%.Of course, it is unlikely that 2026 will completely replicate 2020 (the unprecedented stimulus during the pandemic), but the combination of globally coordinated loose monetary policies, TGA fund release, and institutional fund inflows is enough to drive a decent rally.The likelihood of global synchronized liquidity easing is moderately high (60-65%). Central banks around the world face economic slowdown pressures, making loose monetary policies a high-probability event.\nWelcome to join the official BlockBeats community:\nTelegram Subscription Group: https://t.me/theblockbeats\nTelegram Discussion Group: https://t.me/BlockBeats_App\nOfficial Twitter Account: https://twitter.com/BlockBeatsAsia","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}