HEADLINES

Inflation Eased to 2.2% in October

Annual inflation in Canada cooled as expected in October as drivers paid less at the pump, but stickiness in core measures helps cement expectations that interest rates won't be cut again any time soon.

The consumer-price index rose 2.2% from a year earlier, Statistics Canada said Monday. That was in line with analyst expectations and rolled back much of the previous month's surge to a seven-month high of 2.4%.

Consumer prices were up 0.2% for the month, or 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis, following a sharp 0.4% advance in September.

Inflation was dampened by a steeper drop in gasoline prices last month along with a softer rise in grocery costs, which nevertheless remain elevated. When stripping out those often volatile components, annual inflation for October stood at 2.7%, still above the midpoint of the 1%-to-3% window targeted by the Bank of Canada.

Liberals Head Into Final Confidence Vote on Federal Budget Expecting a Narrow Win

The federal government is expecting the budget to pass a final confidence test by a slim majority Monday as Liberals work behind the scenes to corral enough opposition votes to avert an election, The Globe and Mail reported.

A senior Liberal told The Globe and Mail Sunday that Prime Minister Mark Carney does not have the votes at this point to win a confidence vote. But the official said the Liberals are confident that some members of the three opposition parties will blink. There is no appetite for an election in the country and none of the parties have assembled election-readiness teams, the official added.

Existing Home Sales Nudged Up 0.9% in October, Resuming Modest Upward Trend

Sales of existing homes in Canada edged higher last month, extending the run of modest activity as economic uncertainty rattles the property market and consumers worry about job security.

National sales of existing homes rose 0.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis in October from the previous month, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Monday.

That marked a recovery after home resales fell 1.7% the month before, with sales now up in six of the last seven months. Still, actual sales on a non-adjusted basis were 4.3% below October 2024.

TransAlta to Buy 310 MW Natural Gas Portfolio for $95 Million

TransAlta agreed to buy a 310-megawatt portfolio of four natural gas-fired power plants in Ontario for $95 million.

TransAlta said Monday it will acquire Far North Power Corporation, which owns and operates the power plants, from a Hut 8 affiliate and Macquarie Equipment Finance. TransAlta will fund the deal using cash on hand and draws on its credit facilities, it said.

The assets are expected to add $30 million in average adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization per year for TransAlta, the Calgary, Alberta, energy company said.

TransAlta shares fell 2.3% to C$20.00.

HIVE Digital Technologies Gains After Revenue Rises

Shares of HIVE Digital Technologies rose after the company reported higher second-quarter revenue, driven by gains in digital currency mining revenue.

The stock rose 9.1% to C$5.02.

Revenue rose nearly fourfold, to $87.3 million, beating analysts' estimates of $79.2 million, according to FactSet.

DeFi Technologies Names Wattenstrom as CEO

DeFi Technologies named Johan Wattenstrom as its top executive, succeeding Olivier Roussy Newton, who resigned from the role.

Wattenstrom, who will additionally assume the role of executive chairman, has nearly two decades of experience in digital assets, trading and financial infrastructure, the Canadian fintech company said Monday.

He previously co-founded Valour, DeFi's European ETP platform. Prior to that, he served as CEO of XBT Provider, which issued one of the world's first Bitcoin ETPs, and he also previously founded Nortide Capital, a global digital-asset trading and market-making firm, according to DeFi.

Foreigners Bought C$31.32 Billion of Canadian Securities in October, Driving Inflow of Funds

Canada saw the first quarterly inflow of funds from cross-border securities transactions in the third quarter, though it has still faced an outflow year-to-date.

Nonresident investors purchased a net C$31.32 billion in Canadian securities in September, Statistics Canada said. Foreign investors closed the third quarter with investments totaling about C$80.3 billion.

For the month, Canadian investors bought C$22.12 billion in foreign securities, for a quarterly investment of about C$57.6 billion.

TALKING POINT

As Auto Companies Retreat From Canada, Do Government Subsidies Still Make Sense?

By Eric Atkins of The Globe and Mail

It was the spring of 2022 and federal and Ontario government officials were standing on the floor of a General Motors plant in Oshawa, Ontario, to announce they were giving the automaker more than half a billion dollars.

The Detroit-based carmaker would use the money as part of a $2 billion plan to reopen the Chevrolet Silverado truck plant in Oshawa and retool a factory in Ingersoll, Ontario, to build BrightDrop electric parcel vans.

Politicians took their turns at the microphone to declare the money would secure high-paying assembly jobs, reduce GM's cost of making cars in Ontario and forge Canada's future as a centre for green-vehicle manufacturing. Each government's contribution was up to $259 million.

"Folks, this is just another huge win for the people of Durham and all of Ontario," Ontario Premier Doug Ford told reporters.

"Today is proof that Canada's auto sector is here for the long term," said François-Philippe Champagne, then Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry.

Or not.

Fast-forward to today and the picture is very different. The Ingersoll plant, known as CAMI, is closed, the BrightDrop scrapped and 1,150 workers are laid off. In Oshawa, the third shift of workers -- including about 700 jobs -- is set to be eliminated in January and truck production is declining.

Meanwhile, GM has boosted production of the Silverado in Fort Wayne, Indiana, and is busily retooling a plant in Orion, Michigan, to make more of the pickup trucks by 2027.

The moves were spurred by President Donald Trump's 25% tariffs on Canadian-made vehicles, and poor sales of the BrightDrop. Similarly, Stellantis NV said in October it would move planned production of the Jeep Compass to Illinois from its plant in Brampton, Ontario. That factory was also being retooled with taxpayer support.

"General Motors appreciates that support from the Canadian and Ontario governments enabled investments in CAMI and Oshawa and is committed to working closely with Unifor and our government partners as we evaluate next steps for the future of CAMI," GM spokeswoman Jennifer Wright said in an email.

She declined to provide details of the agreements with governments. The automaker has invested more than $2.6 billion in Canada in the past five years, she said, including $280 million in Oshawa.

Even before Trump began his campaign of destroying the Canadian auto sector, parts of the industry were not in great shape. Long-term production had declined and two assembly plants were idled for retooling: Ford in Oakville and Stellantis in Brampton. But the retreat has gained pace since Trump took office. Brampton's future is now a question mark, Ingersoll is empty and Oshawa is shrinking.

The bad news raises questions about the wisdom of taxpayer handouts to carmakers that can walk away when times change, laying off thousands at assembly plants and the parts factories that supply them.

The grants GM received from governments were to cover capital expenses of building the Oshawa and Ingersoll assembly lines and related work. Typically, governments give automakers grants worth 20% of their capital budgets.

Jason Clemens, executive vice-president of the Fraser Institute, calls the auto subsidies "corporate welfare" and bad public policy that lead to higher taxes with no long-term economic gain.

But if governments did not come up with the money in 2022, the GM plants would not have reopened and the jobs would be long gone, said one person familiar with the matter, whom The Globe and Mail is not identifying because they are not authorized to speak publicly.

The same can be said for much of Ontario's broader auto sector -- its presence has long relied on government aid.

Without subsidies, "we would have seen a much bigger decline in our auto industry over the last generation," said Jim Stanford, economist and director at the Centre for Future Work.

For decades, taxpayer aid for the Canadian auto sector has encouraged companies to keep plants running, retool and continue to provide well-paying jobs. Canada competes for these plants with the U.S. and Mexico, which also offer rich subsidies and, in some cases, lower pay and non-union shops.

Government aid to GM and other automakers in Canada goes back decades and amounts to many billions of dollars.

In 2009, Canada gave $13.7 billion in aid to GM Canada and Stellantis to help the companies survive the financial crisis. GM's share was $10.8 billion; taxpayers were left with a $2.8 billion loss, according to the Canadian Taxpayers Federation.

In 1987, governments gave GM and partner Suzuki $112 million in grants and incentives to build the Ingersoll plant -- the one now shuttered.

The same year, GM received $220 million in interest-free loans from governments for its plant in Ste-Therese, Quebec. It left the province in 2002.

Tens of billions more in government subsidies were earmarked for various EV battery makers in Canada in recent years, just ahead of a slowdown in demand for electric cars.

That includes aid worth up to $15 billion for Stellantis and LG Energy for the NextStar battery plant in Windsor, Ontario. That agreement was announced in 2023, when the assumed pre-eminence of electric cars was unquestioned and Trump's tariffs unforeseen. As EV sales slump, NextStar says it has shifted its focus to stationary batteries -- not EVs -- as production starts this month.

Now, Canadian governments are figuring out how to respond to companies they've funded now pulling back from Canada.

In October, Champagne, as Finance Minister, notified GM he is "disappointed" by GM's production cuts in Ontario and reduced the automaker's tariff-free import quota by 24%, while also reducing Stellantis's quota.

Details of the agreements governments and automakers reach are confidential. Financial aid usually takes a few forms: cash grants, tax breaks or production subsidies. Generally, there are strings attached related to employment, production and amounts spent by the companies themselves.

Ontario's legal team is in touch with GM to ensure the funding agreements are respected and enforced, said Jennifer Cunliffe, a spokeswoman for Ontario's Minister of Economic Development Victor Fedeli. She did not address questions about how much of the $259 million has been granted to GM.

The department of Innovation, Science and Economic Development said $236 million in federal money had been "disbursed" to GM by the end of fiscal year 2023-2024 but declined to say what job guarantees accompanied the funding.

"The government is actively engaging with General Motors to ensure all outstanding conditions under the ... agreement are fulfilled," the department said in a statement, describing the funding as "partially repayable."

The U.S.-imposed tariffs and the slowing growth in demand for battery-electric vehicles upended recent government subsidy policies, said Saibal Ray, a professor at McGill University.

"Before Trump, you can make a case these were necessary and were perhaps effective, but today it's not clear because there is no guarantee that things will work as they are meant to work," Ray said.

Peter Frise, a professor at the University of Windsor, said carmakers are good at forecasting how production plans and consumer demand will let them fulfill financial covenants with governments. But the Trump era turned that on its head.

"They have a very deep insight into what's going [to] happen next and how far they can go and what promises they can make," Frise said. "But what has happened this time is they've been completely whipsawed by events in the United States around the tariffs and the dropping of the battery EV rebates."

He added, "I really don't ascribe bad faith to the companies right now. I'm not happy with what they've done. But I'm not sure what options they had. I think they feel they have to throw the White House a bone."

Still, the Fraser Institute's Clemens said the GM and Stellantis cuts highlight governments' poor track records of selecting winners. The money would be better spent reducing taxes and creating conditions for all businesses to succeed, he said.

Expected Major Events for Tuesday

09:30/UK: Aug Card Spending statistics

09:30/UK: Oct Monthly Insolvency statistics

13:15/CAN: Oct Housing Starts

13:30/US: Oct Import & Export Price Indexes

13:55/US: 11/15 Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

14:15/US: Oct Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (No data during govt shutdown)

15:00/US: Aug Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)

15:00/US: Nov NAHB Housing Market Index

15:00/US: 3Q Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales

21:00/US: Sep Treasury International Capital Data

21:30/US: API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

23:50/JPN: Sep Orders Received for Machinery

23:50/JPN: Oct Provisional Trade Statistics for the Month

All times in GMT. Powered by Onclusive and Dow Jones.

Expected Earnings for Tuesday

AECOM $(ACM)$ is expected to report $1.33 for 4Q.

BellRing Brands Inc (BRBR) is expected to report $0.55 for 4Q.

Dolby Laboratories Inc - A Share $(DLB)$ is expected to report $0.35 for 4Q.

Energizer Holdings Inc $(ENR)$ is expected to report $1.13 for 4Q.

Golub Capital BDC (GBDC) is expected to report $0.39 for 4Q.

Home Depot Inc $(HD)$ is expected to report $3.77 for 3Q.

Ituran Location & Control Ltd (ITRN,ITRN-TV) is expected to report for 3Q.

KULR Technology Group Inc $(KULR)$ is expected to report for 3Q.

La-Z-Boy Inc $(LZB)$ is expected to report $0.54 for 2Q.

Medtronic PLC $(MDT)$ is expected to report $0.93 for 2Q.

Navios Maritime Partners LP (NMM) is expected to report $2.10 for 3Q.

Northern Technologies International Corp $(NTIC)$ is expected to report $0.06 for 4Q.

Oaktree Specialty Lending Corp (OCSL) is expected to report $0.37 for 4Q.

Powell Industries Inc (POWL) is expected to report $3.78 for 4Q.

S&W Seed Co (SANW) is expected to report for 1Q.

Solana Co (HSDT) is expected to report for 3Q.

Star Equity Holdings Inc (STRR) is expected to report for 3Q.

StoneX Group Inc $(SNEX)$ is expected to report $1.58 for 4Q.

Ultralife Corp $(ULBI)$ is expected to report for 3Q.

Universal Safety Products Inc $(UUU)$ is expected to report for 2Q.

Varex Imaging Corp (VREX) is expected to report $0.14 for 4Q.

Wilhelmina International Inc (WHLM) is expected to report for 3Q.

Zynex Inc $(ZYXI)$ is expected to report $-0.19 for 3Q.

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 17, 2025 16:30 ET (21:30 GMT)

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