马斯克询问未来一年AI股票下跌20%概率有多大,Grok这样回答

环球市场播报
14 hours ago

  马斯克的人工智能聊天机器人对X上一篇讨论人工智能泡沫问题的长文进行了总结,将作者的观点简化为几句话:“人工智能不存在泡沫——估值是合理的,我们还处于超级周期的早期。但多头和空头都渴望抛物线上涨。萨姆·奥特曼1.4万亿美元的挥霍改变了叙事:聚焦于货币化挑战、生态系统风险、政府参与以及电网容量、失业率和搁浅资产等长期不确定性。

  这引发了市场的怀疑,导致投机性AI股票表现不佳,并转向关注盈利能力。交易日趋成熟;基本面现在更加重要。”

  马斯克在这条帖子下询问Grok:“未来12个月AI相关股票下跌超过20%的概率有多大?”

  Grok回答道:“25%左右。AI股票面临电网限制、政策转变和资本支出消化等风险,这些风险可能在近期波动中引发回调。然而,对计算的永不满足的需求、不断提高的效率,以及xAI的前沿进步,都使风险倾向于上行——历史上的科技股下跌很少会在这么早的时候破坏超级周期。基本面大于泡沫。”

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