长江有色金属网数据显示，11月17日，长江综合钨粉均价报747500元/吨，较前一交易日上涨2500元，年内累计涨幅已实现翻倍。另据中钨在线数据，11月17日，65%黑钨精矿价格报32万元/标吨，较上一日上涨2000元/吨，年初至今上涨123.8%。65%白钨精矿价格报31.9万元/标吨，较上一日上涨2000元/吨，较年初涨124.7%。仲钨酸铵（APT）价格报47.8万元/吨，较上一日上涨3000元/吨，较年初涨126.5%。
分析认为，供给端的极致紧张是钨粉价格上涨的核心基石。2025年国内首批钨矿开采总量控制指标降至5.8万吨，同比降幅达6.45%，江西、湖南等主产区配额进一步下调，部分低产能矿区甚至未获开采指标，源头供给持续收缩。需求端的多元爆发为价格上行注入强劲动力，光伏及固态电池等新型领域需求快速爆发，传统领域同步回暖。
短期来看，四季度传统补库需求叠加光伏装机高峰形成的需求合力仍在释放，低库存格局短期难以改变。中长期而言，开采配额收紧、环保政策常态化与新兴领域需求增长的趋势难以逆转，全球供需缺口预计达4679吨，价格中枢有望持续上移。
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