金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，化工行业总体需求依赖宏观环境，据国家统计局，2025年10月国内PMI指数49.0，1-10月国内房屋新开工/竣工/商品房销售面积累计同比增速-19.8%/-16.9%/-6.8%，后续伴随国内政策端持续发力，终端需求有望逐步改善。外需方面，欧美等国家和地区的OECD综合领先指标目前仍处于2022年以来较好水平。化工行业CCPI指数和价差水平自22H2以来整体处于近十年较低位置，该机构认为伴随需求端逐渐改善及供给侧的调整，2026年大宗化工品供需面有望逐步迎来改善。原油方面，25Q4以来OPEC+增产等或致供给呈现宽松局面，但中长期油价预计存底部支撑，叠加龙头企业降本增量；大宗化工领域，25H2以来化学原料及制品行业资本开支增速拐点已现，2026年内需改善叠加出口支撑，且“反内卷”等助力供给优化，新一轮复苏有望到来，具备全球竞争优势的优质化工资产或将迎来价值重估；化学制品和精细化工品领域，下游需求改善和毛利率修复并行，叠加出口和出海驱动增长；政策引导和产业趋势带动下，AI/新能源/机器人等领域新材料创新和国产替代有望提速，生物制造等新兴技术有望加快发展。
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