瑞银:美联储下月会议时间“尴尬” 不排除为了数据推迟会议

格隆汇
Nov 24, 2025

瑞银指出,美联储下月会议时间安排面临前一个“尴尬”的处境:其12月的FOMC会议将在两份关键就业报告发布之前召开,而这两份报告恰恰是决定是否降息的核心数据。这促使市场开始讨论一种可能性:美联储是否会将原定12月10日的会议推迟一周,以便在决策前掌握关键的就业数据。回顾过往,会议时间的调整并非没有可能,1971年和1974年,美联储均曾因特殊情况推迟会议。而从规则层面看,美联储法案仅要求FOMC每年至少召开四次会议,未对日期调整作出刚性规定。瑞银指出,历史上单份就业报告就足以改变货币政策方向,而此次美联储则是面临失去两份报告的风险。若真的出现会议推迟的情况,将增加政策不确定性,但可能提高决策质量。

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