金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，国家发展和改革委员会办公厅发布《关于做好2026年电煤保供中长期合同签订和履约监管工作的通知》（发改办运行〔2025〕985号）（以下简称“2026版”），明确了2026电煤中长协合同形式、定价基准、履约监管方式等。该机构认为相比2025版本更加市场化的坑口长协合约将有利于稳定履约率，该机构看好煤价中枢企稳后、降息周期煤炭红利逻辑，推荐动力煤龙头。该机构指，强需求+低库存+供给受压制，看好Q4煤价在高位获得支撑。强需求：该机构认为基数效应消除有望支撑4Q25用电增速，水电的挤出效应亦减弱。低库存：库存方面，10月沿海动力煤库存同比-4%，相比+9%的沿海日耗形成强需求低库存；供给受压制：供给侧，部分煤矿因煤层变薄可能面临逐步退出、“抓超产”控制全年生产总量、中央巡视组开始进驻产区进行考核检查等供给侧压制因素，年初以来煤炭产能利用率持续走低，一至三季度分别为71.9%、69.3%、68.9%，10月原煤产量同比-2.3%，自7月以来保持负增长。
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