美股大跌其实是因为日本?法兴银行:日债收益率飙升是最大风险信号

智通财经
Nov 21

智通财经APP获悉,自称“超级看跌者”的法兴银行策略师Albert Edwards表示,担心美股牛市能否持续的投资者应关注日本债券收益率。Edwards早在 5 月份就表示,日本债券收益率飙升是自 2008 年危机以来债券收益率被压低的制度开始以来,全球市场面临的最大风险。

Edwards发文称,尽管投资者关注英伟达(NVDA.US)的业绩以及延迟公布的美国经济数据,但“当前市场最重要的单一发展是日本国债收益率飙升……日本10 年期国债收益率已突破1.82%。这就是终结股市多头行情的因素吗?”

Edwards认为,日本历来是重大金融转折的早期预警点,并补充说,日本机构可能会将资金调回国内,从而逆转多年来以日元融资的套利交易以及大量购买外国债券(包括美国国债)的趋势。

Edwards警告称,由于美国国债和股票都得益于日本持续的资金流入,美国市场易受冲击。他表示,如果日本国债收益率上升促使国内投资者回流,那么资金的撤离可能会重创美国资产,并给美元带来压力。

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