Asia Week Ahead: Inflation Signals, Central Bank Decisions, and Growth Indicators

MT Newswires
Nov 24, 2025

A packed week of inflation releases, central bank decisions, and industrial production figures will set the tone for Asia's markets, with investors watching how the region navigates a delicate balance between cooling global demand and pockets of domestic resilience.

Hopes of a potential Bank of Japan rate increase, the staying power of North Asia's semiconductor upswing, and the durability of India's consumption engine will anchor sentiment as traders debate whether the year is gliding toward stabilisation or entering a more unsettled stretch.

Here is a day-by-day look at the key data to watch across Asia this week.

MONDAY, Nov. 24

The week kicked off with a firmer inflation reading from Singapore.

Core inflation, which excludes accommodation and private transport, rose 1.2% year on year in October, compared with 0.4% in September, according to a joint release by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and the Ministry of Trade and Industry.

Headline consumer price index inflation also increased to 1.2 percent from 0.7 percent, driven largely by higher private transport costs and a pickup in retail and other goods prices.

Meanwhile, China's foreign investments between January and October dropped 10% year on year to 621.9 billion yuan despite an increase in the number of new foreign-investment enterprises, according to the Ministry of Commerce.

TUESDAY, Nov. 25

South Korea will publish its November Bank of Korea Consumer Sentiment Index, expected near 110, suggesting households remain steady despite external volatility.

Taiwan's October industrial production will follow, with analysts expecting another strong double-digit gain as information technology and electronic equipment manufacturing continue to drive output.

Key regional trade data will add more layers to the picture. Thailand will release its October trade balance, with consensus pointing to a mild deficit, while exports and imports are forecast to post strong double-digit gains.

Hong Kong will update markets with its October trade balance and external trade flows, including a rebound in exports and imports, offering another read on the region's goods demand cycle.

WEDNESDAY, Nov. 26

South Korea will release its November Business Survey for manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, offering a timely gauge of corporate confidence.

Australia will publish a heavy slate of October inflation indicators, including trimmed-mean and weighted-median consumer price measures, as policymakers continue to assess whether price pressures are easing fast enough.

Westpac expects annual monthly consumer price index inflation at 3.9 percent, noting that falling electricity costs and easing rental pressures should help limit the size of the monthly increase.

The bank also expects construction work done to decline 1.1 percent in the third quarter as the mining-related infrastructure spike seen previously begins to unwind.

New Zealand's central bank will hold its policy meeting and is widely expected to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut, extending cumulative easing to 275 basis points since mid-2024.

Westpac expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to maintain a modest, data-dependent easing bias as policymakers continue to watch inflation expectations and demand conditions.

According to a report from Westpac, 90% of its clients expect a 25 basis point cut at Wednesday's meeting, with a further 5 percent anticipating a larger 50 basis point move.

Singapore's October industrial production will also be released, with markets expecting a moderation after an unusually strong September surge.

Late in the session, India will report money supply statistics.

THURSDAY, Nov. 27

The Bank of Korea will announce its policy rate decision and is expected to keep the base rate unchanged at 2.5%.

Markets anticipate at least one dissenting vote as policymakers prioritise stability against volatile housing prices, elevated household leverage, and foreign exchange swings. The bank will also publish its outlook report, where analysts expect upward revisions to its 2025 and 2026 gross domestic product forecasts.

China will release October industrial profits, which are expected to remain firmly in positive territory following strong gains in August and September.

Export-oriented sectors such as rail, shipbuilding, aerospace, and electronics manufacturing are likely to continue benefiting from resilient external demand.

Japan's schedule includes a speech by Bank of Japan policy board member Asahi Noguchi in Oita, with markets scrutinising his remarks for fresh clues on the timing of the next interest rate increase.

Australia will publish its third-quarter capital expenditure report. Westpac expects private new capital expenditure to rise 0.5% in the quarter, led by spending in structural industries such as information technology and energy.

New Zealand will also release its third-quarter retail sales report, where Westpac expects a 0.6% increase, reflecting firmer spending through the middle of the year.

The November ANZ Business Confidence Index, which surged after the October 50 basis point official cash rate cut, will also be closely watched for signs of further sentiment improvement.

Meanwhile, Malaysia will release its October producer price index.

FRIDAY, Nov. 28

Japan will dominate the final weekday with a wide array of indicators. Tokyo's November core consumer price index is expected at 2.8% year on year, while headline consumer price index inflation is forecast at 2.8%, according to ING economists.

Industrial production is projected to rebound sharply after September's decline, supported by firmer semiconductor demand and improved trade dynamics with the United States.

The government will also release the October unemployment, retail sales, and housing starts. Rising wages and a weaker yen continue to support inflation, and markets see both December and January as live options for a Bank of Japan rate increase.

India will release gross domestic product figures for the second quarter of the fiscal year ending March 31.

ING economists expect growth to moderate to 7.5% year on year, reflecting the drag from weaker exports after the United States imposed a 50% tariff on key shipments.

Even so, they believe private consumption remained firm, supported in part by goods and services tax reductions that have bolstered household purchases and softened the blow from external weakness.

India's real gross domestic product was likely flattered by statistical effects such as a low base and weak deflators, according to economists at DBS, a Wall Street Journal report said.

They expect the data to show that government spending, rural consumption, improved real purchasing power amid soft inflation, and some frontloading of exports helped support growth, it added.

South Korea will publish its October industrial production, which is expected to rise strongly year on year amid persistent momentum in the semiconductor sector.

The Philippines will release its October trade data, Singapore will publish its producer price index, and Taiwan will release its final third-quarter gross domestic product reading, expected to confirm robust technology-sector performance.

Thailand will provide updates on its current account, private consumption, and investment indicators, rounding out the regional dataflow.

SUNDAY, Nov. 30

China will close the week with its official November purchasing managers index readings. The National Bureau of Statistics manufacturing purchasing managers index is expected at 49.0 after 49.5 previously.

Meanwhile, the non-manufacturing purchasing managers index is forecast at 50.1 and the composite purchasing managers index at 50.0, according to Trading Economics.

These figures will offer a final snapshot of China's economic pulse heading into December.

Australia will also release November dwelling price data, where nationwide prices are expected to rise at a steady clip, adding further detail to the region's housing market narrative.

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