核心观点本周美股调整加剧,但基本面未出现实质利空,降息预期收敛是主要矛盾。当下环境与2018年底类似:美股在10-11月开始调整,担忧加息和衰退,但鲍威尔在12月议息会议上鹰派加息,美股大跌。12月议息会议,鲍威尔是否重演2018,或决定短期美股节奏。(一)2018年12月鲍威尔“加息失误”复盘10月:美股高位调整,全月回撤超7%。鲍威尔在月初演讲中表示“距离中性利率还很远”,引发“关税+加息+...
Source Link核心观点本周美股调整加剧,但基本面未出现实质利空,降息预期收敛是主要矛盾。当下环境与2018年底类似:美股在10-11月开始调整,担忧加息和衰退,但鲍威尔在12月议息会议上鹰派加息,美股大跌。12月议息会议,鲍威尔是否重演2018,或决定短期美股节奏。(一)2018年12月鲍威尔“加息失误”复盘10月:美股高位调整,全月回撤超7%。鲍威尔在月初演讲中表示“距离中性利率还很远”,引发“关税+加息+...
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