金吾财讯 | 近期，VC（碳酸亚乙烯酯）与六氟磷酸锂市场开启第二波上涨行情，成为锂电材料中唯一持续涨价的品类，供需失衡与低库存成为核心驱动因素。价格方面呈现明显分层：第一梯队大客户采购价10-12万元/吨，第二梯队主流现货价15万元/吨，第三梯队中小型客户采购价高达17-20万元/吨以上，短期订单平均价约15万元/吨。当前行业库存仅3-5天，远低于正常一个月的库存水平，“一货难求”局面持续。供给端，VC属精细化工品类，扩产周期长、审批严格，短期产能难以提升。同时现有装置高负荷运行导致检修频发，进一步压缩有效供给。需求端，即便临近春节传统淡季，产业链补库需求强烈，一季度或触发主动补库，支撑价格上行。盈利方面，VC主流企业全成本约5万元/吨，扣除税费后单吨净利润约7万余元，万吨级产能对应年化利润超7亿元，盈利能力显著。近期VC价格每日涨幅达1-3万元，昨日涨幅超10%，价格动能强劲。叠加二线企业短单比例高、估值多在10倍左右，投资性价比突出，共同构筑了市场第二波行情的基础。
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