金吾财讯 | 招银国际研报指，中通快递(02057)3Q25净利润/核心净利润分别为同比+5%/-3%，基本符合该机构的预期。中通下调了全年包裹量增长指引（12.3%-13.8%，而8月份的预期为14%-18%）。这是今年第二次下调预期，该机构认为这是对反内卷的持续响应。在业绩发布会上，中通预计2026年行业包裹量同比增长约10%。考虑到单票价格上涨但包裹量下降以及KA相关成本增加，该机构将2026/27年盈利预测分别小幅下调2%/5%。主要同行包裹单票价格在10月份普遍出现同比反弹，该机构预计这一改善趋势将持续到2026年初。该机构将ZTO US/2057 HK的目标价分别小幅下调至23.3美元/183港元（此前为23.9美元/187港元），基于2026年预期市盈率维持在15倍不变（低于历史平均水平1个标准差，以反映盈利增长持续放缓），维持“买入”评级。
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