金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，11月以来OPEC+继续上调12月产量目标，但宣布暂缓26Q1的增产计划，同时美国和英国对俄罗斯两大石油企业制裁的影响仍未消退，但全球原油供需宽松局势难改，11月19日WTI/Brent期货价格较10月末下跌3.2%/2.6%至59.00/63.38美元/桶。全球部分炼厂计划外停产叠加对俄制裁引发柴油结构性紧缺，柴油裂解价差升至近两年高位。该机构认为美对俄制裁扰动下油价短期或仍处于高波动阶段，但北半球旺季尾声叠加OPEC+实际增量释放，供需宽松局势下25Q4-26Q2油价或仍处于下行区间，该机构预计25/26年Brent均价为68/62美元/桶。长期而言，该机构认为产油国“利重于量”诉求未改，OPEC+在短期牺牲价格以争取市场份额后，再平衡压力有望推动新一轮协同达成，叠加北美页岩油成本影响，60美元/桶的布伦特油价中枢在南美供应增量集中释放、全球能源转型进一步提速之前，仍有望得到支撑，具备增产降本能力及天然气业务增量的高分红能源龙头，或将具有配置机遇。
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