【券商聚焦】国金证券维持速腾聚创(02498)“买入”评级后续关注公司4Q业绩反转预期

金吾财讯

Nov 26, 2025

金吾财讯 | 国金证券发研报指，速腾聚创(02498)发布25年三季报业绩。收入&利润端：3Q增长承压，机器人出货环比增速放缓。1)收入端：3Q营收4.07亿元，同比持平，今年1Q/2Q分别9.2%/24.4%。2)出货量：3Q总计出货18.56万颗激光雷达，YoY+34.0%。其中ADAS15.01万颗，YoY+14.3%；Robotics3.55万颗，YoY+393.1%。3)利润端：3Q亏损1.0亿元，亏损扩张20.2%，经调整净亏损0.65亿元，同比减亏7%。3Q综合毛利率23.9%，YoY+6.4pp，QoQ-3.7pp。该机构表示，①3Q意料之中是报表端相对平淡的季度→下游车企销量影响收入增速、新技术路线量产产品的切换影响ADAS毛利率、经营费用开支的小幅扩张放大经营亏损，上述压力之下假使4Q顺利扭亏或带来反转惊喜。②ADAS毛利率进入阶段性平台期也许是价格战趋缓的信号→过去1-2年，速腾在多数时候掌握了ADASASP的主导权，友商一般会以稍高的价格跟进，因而该机构认为速腾ADAS毛利率的空间一定程度上决定了价格战的空间，3QADAS毛利率的环比小幅下修或意味着市场担心的通缩问题阶段性有了趋缓的可能性。后续关注公司4Q业绩反转预期。该机构调整公司25~27年营业收入分别为19.0/32.6/47.5亿元，归母净利润分别为-2.56/0.75/3.97亿元。公司股票现价对应PS估值为7.3/4.3/2.9倍，维持“买入”评级。

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