挪威三季度 mainland GDP 增长放缓 支撑SEB对2026年降息两次的预期

环球市场播报
Nov 26, 2025

  瑞典商业银行(SEB)挪威首席策略师Erica Dalsto指出,挪威 mainland GDP在第三季度增长放缓,这支持了该行关于挪威央行将在2026年进行两次降息的预测。

  mainland GDP的季度环比增长率从第二季度下修后的0.5%放缓至0.1%。该数据略低于市场共识预期,且远低于挪威央行0.4%的预估。Dalsto补充道,尽管对历史数据的大幅修订影响了结果,但弱于预期的经济增长和就业数据,佐证了其他表明挪威央行预测存在一些下行风险的数据。

  “尽管这对潜在通胀压力来说应是令人鼓舞的迹象,但失业率仍处于低位,我们重申,工资增长的发展动向将对降息前景起决定性作用。”

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