金吾财讯 | 华泰证券研报指，中教控股(00839)公布FY25财报：公司全年收入为73.63亿元，yoy+11.9%；净利润5.06亿元，yoy+0.8%，符合业绩预告（4.4-6亿元）。公司正从外延扩张转向以内生增长和价值深化为核心的新阶段，长期盈利能力仍稳健，待资产负债表结构优化后有望恢复现金分红。该机构提到，11月5日广东省教育厅发布《广东省现有民办高校分类管理改革配套文件（征求意见稿）》，明确了现有民办高校分类登记的主要程序，有望为平稳有序推进省内现有民办高校分类管理改革奠定基础。中教控股在广东省内的高校若能顺利完成营利性登记，将有望支撑板块情绪和估值修复。综合考虑学生人数增速和资本开支优化，该机构预计FY26-28经调整归母净利润至20.37/21.37/21.75亿元（前值：19.69/21.58/-亿元）。由于分红政策对公司估值影响较大，该机构采用DDM估值，假设FY27恢复现金分红、分红率40%（参考FY24分红率），维持WACC为14.89%，永续增长率为1%，港元兑人民币为0.91（前值0.92），目标价为3.68港元（前值3.91港元）。维持“买入”评级。
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