【券商聚焦】中国银河:成长仍具持续性 魔芋健康+美味底层逻辑不改

金吾财讯
Nov 27, 2025

金吾财讯 | 中国银河发研报指,2025年魔芋零食行业呈现高度景气,积极布局相关品类的盐津铺子卫龙美味收入与股价均实现相对零食大盘的超额增长。展望2026年,市场重点关注魔芋的持续性如何,我们认为:1)成长仍具持续性,魔芋健康+美味底层逻辑不改,且传统魔芋产品调味以辣、咸为主,契合情绪消费趋势,渗透率仍有提升空间;创新“魔芋+”产品有望从其他品类引流新客群、并且提升魔芋已有消费者复购,进一步拓宽品类上限。2)竞争格局无虞,参考日本薯片的发展历史:短期来看,行业高增期间难免出现价格竞争,但头部企业竞争力更强,市场份额仍在提升,此外能力较强的其他品类零食企业跨界布局后也能贡献收入增长;长期来看,头部企业能够凭借其产品创新与供应链能力穿越周期,实现份额的长期提升。回归国内视角,短期来看,我们认为卫龙、盐津具备品类心智、规模优势与渠道优势,预计能够有力应对价格竞争,劲仔、洽洽则有望分享品类红利。长期来看,卫龙与盐津已在产品创新、供应链形成一定护城河,品类CR2有望持续提升。11月上旬食品饮料指数持续修复,相较于大盘已经实现超额收益,主要得益于市场风格切换以及CPI增速转正形成催化。板块内部来看,预加工食品、烘焙食品与乳制品涨幅居前。展望2026年,我们核心观点是新消费仍具持续性但内部将会轮动,而传统消费有望迎来底部改善尤其是供给出清的细分板块。

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