【券商聚焦】招银国际：中国股市处于牛市下半场 A股有望跑赢港股

金吾财讯

Dec 04

金吾财讯 | 招银国际表示，2025年囤货需求、AI热潮、央行降息与财政扩张助力全球经济抵御关税冲击。2026年美国中期选举压力、欧日振兴国防诉求和中国稳增长需求将推动上半年政策延续宽松。但由于利率接近中性水平、通胀仍高于目标、政府债务率攀升和前期政策透支需求，宏观政策的实际空间与边际效应递减；AI热潮尽管提升生产效率与股市估值，但也加剧就业走弱和经济K型分化。全球流动性宽松、美元走弱和中国反内卷共振，下半年通胀可能回升，流动性拐点预期可能引发高估值资产动荡。中国GDP增速从2025年5%降至2026年4.8%。年内经济增长前低后高，9.24刺激和抢出口带来高基数与需求透支，GDP增速连续2-3个季度低于5%后稳增长政策将再次发力。中国商品出口增速下降。房地产跌幅收窄，一线城市房价趋稳。家庭消费增速走平，商品消费增速下降而服务消费增速回升。因政策反内卷和从投资于物转向投资于人，制造业和基础设施业投资增速均将放缓。广义财政赤字率8.5%与2025年基本持平，财政支出更加聚焦新质生产力和社会民生。货币政策延续宽松，央行降准50基点并降息20基点，货币利率下降，国债收益率微升，美元/人民币年末降至7.02。股市处于牛市下半场，可能先涨后跌，A股有望跑赢港股。

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