金吾财讯 | 交银国际表示，“十五五”开局之年，寻找新均衡。展望2026年，该机构预计中国内地房地产行业在政策大力托举下探索新的发展模式，整体虽仍或面临一定挑战，但“好房子”和“好城市”带来的结构性机会已显现。该机构预计2026年全国商品房销售面积将为9.0 - 9.5亿平方米区间（对比2024年的约9.7亿平方米）同时，由于销售面积和全国平均房价的结构性调整（部分被高端项目入市对冲），该机构预计全国商品房销售金额预计将在约10 - 11万亿元人民币，其中包括约8 - 9万亿元人民币商品住宅销售。投资建议：该机构对中国内地房地产的偏好排序为：估值不高的国企/国企背景开发商>拥有一/二线城市土地储备的民企龙头>其他民企开发商。
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