金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示，展望26年：1）国际油运受益于多重利好因素共振（OPEC+增产周期+长航距美洲国家原油出口量增加+地缘事件扰动），行业有望维持高景气度，运价中枢较20-25年周期将显著抬升，有望大幅推升油运公司盈利。2）散货市场有望受益于美国降息周期带动的海外大宗商品需求改善，叠加几内亚新矿投产带动长航距运输需求，行业周期上行，运价同比有望增长。3）集运因中东局势缓和，红海恢复通航概率较前期有所提升，市场存较大不确定性。若通行恢复，26年运价将承压。4）港口盈利有望保持平稳，其中，该机构预计出口集装箱量同比增速或放缓，进口散货量同比或有望显著改善。
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