ChainCatcher 消息，加密市场研究机构 Delphi Digital 在社交媒体上发文表示，美联储明年的利率路径是多年来最清晰的一次。2025 年 12 月再次降息 25 个基点，使联邦基金利率降至约 3.5%-3.75%。远期曲线预测 2026 年至少还有三次降息，若路径不变，年底利率将降至 3% 左右低区间。
但降息只是其中一部分。量化紧缩（QT）已于 12 月 1 日结束。财政部一般账户（TGA）计划逐步减少而非补充。隔夜逆回购（RRP）已完全耗尽。这些因素共同造就了自 2022 年初以来首个净流动性为正的环境。
有担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）与联邦基金利率已回落至 3% 高位区间。实际利率也已从 2023-2024 年的峰值回落。但并未出现崩溃式下跌，这是一次有控制的放缓，而非政策急转弯。
2026 年将是政策从阻力转为温和助力的一年。这种环境有利于长久期资产、大型股、黄金，以及背后有结构性需求支撑的数字资产。
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