金吾财讯 | 猪肉概念逆市下跌，惠生国际(01340)跌2.27%，万洲国际(00288)跌1.42%，中粮家佳康(01610)跌0.63%。中邮证券研报指出，经过短暂企稳后，猪价重回下降通道，主因供给过剩及需求疲软未有明显改变。截至11月28日，全国生猪均价11.09元/公斤，较上周下降0.37元/公斤，猪价呈现二次探底趋势。当前供大于求依然是行业主形势：养殖集团出栏量仍大，但是屠宰企业开工率未见提升，且本次春节时间较晚，暂未看到明显的需求增量。该机构指出，24年5月至25年4月母猪存栏增加，对应着25年Q4及26年Q1生猪供给继续增加。目前行业已全面亏损，且猪价或尚未触底，亏损预期还在继续强化。另10月能繁母猪存栏虽超预期下降，但距离26年1月底前去化100万头的目标尚有近半未完成，政策力度仍将持续。政策发力、市场倒逼、秋冬疾病等多因素推动下，产能去化将持续。
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