【券商聚焦】中国银河:2026年投资机会可围绕火电盈利稳定性提升等展开

金吾财讯
Dec 02

金吾财讯 | 中国银河认为,2026年投资机会可围绕火电盈利稳定性提升、低利率环境下水电股息率吸引力增强、核电长期高成长性、新能源收益预期明确等展开。一)火电:预计2026年容量电价增加能对冲部分煤价上涨带来的成本上升,电量电价来看,预计北方省份仍将维持相对坚挺。十五五期间,火电通过容量电价、辅助服务、现货市场等获得额外收益,盈利能力、盈利稳定性均有提升空间。二)水电:2025年9月以来来水转好,中长期来看得益于财务费用下降+折旧到期+装机增量的多重驱动,成长性仍值得期待。当前低利率环境下,股息率具备吸引力。三)核电:核电进入积极有序发展新阶段,核准在建装机容量为在运装机的107%,且2026-2027年进入投产高峰期,建议关注国内核电机组常态化核准背景下的装机弹性。四)新能源:2025年末各省机制电价竞价结果陆续出台,整体来看机制电价低于燃煤基准价,光伏电价低于风电。全面入市将对电量电价造成压力,其中光伏由于出力集中影响大于风电。目前新能源消纳压力大,通过与绿色氢氨醇、算力等集成融合发展有望促进新能源高效利用,打开第二成长空间。建议关注运营能力优异的龙头企业以及具备区位优势和成本优势的企业。

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