【券商聚焦】华泰证券:预期26年中国钢铁行业的供需格局或改善

金吾财讯
Dec 02, 2025

金吾财讯 | 华泰证券表示,2026年该机构预期中国钢铁行业的供需格局或改善。针对需求,该机构认为需求增速预期或在-1.1%(悲观预期)至1.5%(乐观预期)。针对钢铁行业反内卷,2026年粗钢产量或减少1.5-2%(2020-2024年粗钢减产CAGR 1.43%)。2026年铁矿产能进入扩张周期,铁矿价格中枢或下移,价格运行中枢或在95-105美元/吨。2026年西芒杜铁矿供给将开始起量,全球铁矿产量增量或将达到5000万吨。而需求或增加3000-4000万吨,预期铁矿石供需向宽松转变。

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