【券商聚焦】交银国际:医药行业短期催化剂充足 长期继续看好创新主线

金吾财讯
Dec 05, 2025

金吾财讯 | 交银国际表示,2025年10月以来,内资通过港股通持有医药股的比例小幅下降,外资持仓从年中起亦呈回落态势,但内外资加大创新药布局的大方向不变。本周内资偏向防御,倾向于获利了结,主要加仓内生增长稳定的传统及低估创新药企,包括映恩生物联邦制药石药集团。而外资则更积极,聚焦创新主线中的龙头及产业链上游,包括恒瑞医药君实生物荣昌生物等创新药,及康龙化成药明康德泰格医药等CXO标的。该机构指,1-8批集采接续方案征求意见稿显示,采购规则转变为询价模式。根据此前1-6批集采接续情况来看,该机构认为询价规则下整体降价幅度或有限,对港股处方药企的影响或小于预期,可持续关注后续正式规则的出台。12月,行业仍有充足催化剂,包括各项学术大会、医保谈判结果公布、美联储潜在降息等,板块投资情绪有望稳中有升。该机构继续推荐关注以下细分方向:1)创新药:三生制药、德琪医药、百济神州等短期催化剂丰富、估值仍未反映核心大单品价值;先声药业和黄医药传奇生物被明显低估、长期成长逻辑清晰;2)CXO:受益于下游高景气度和融资边际回暖的细分赛道龙头,如药明合联;3)监管不确定性逐步释放,有反转机会的医院、器械和诊断等子板块。

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