The shift to higher-speed tiers of internet connections is expected to accelerate further as NBN, which manages Australia's National Broadband Network, confirmed recently that both high-speed internet and "Fibre Connect" demand remains strong, Jarden said in a Thursday note.
It also expects market share gains amongst challenger brands to slow.
Aussie Broadband (ASX:ABB) grew its market share of NBN services in operation by around 20 basis points through the first quarter of fiscal 2026, adding around 16,000 subscribers in the quarter. Continued positive mix effect beyond the quarter should allow the firm to offset gross margin pressures across the residential segment, due to its strategic decision to largely hold headline prices flat into fiscal year 2026.
Superloop (ASX:SLC) grew its market share of NBN services in operation by around 30 basis points through the first quarter of fiscal 2026, with the rise weighted towards consumer segment subscriber growth. With around 164,000 of Superloop's customers on 50 megabits-per-second connections, the firm is well placed for customers trading up to 500 megabits-per-second plans.
Telstra Group (ASX:TLS) remains exposed to legacy technology types, with around 45% of its base still on either fibre-to-the-node or fibre-to-the-curb connections. Given its migration of customers to a new digital technology stack, the analysts see the increased penetration of higher speed plans as evidence of improved "base management."
TPG Telecom's (ASX:TPG) NBN services in operation declined under 20,000 through the first half of 2026, a slowdown in the rate of subscriber loss compared with the fourth quarter of 2025. TPG lifted "base management" activity, and alongside a brand refresh, this appears to be reducing churn.
It set a rating of overweight for Aussie Broadband and a price target of AU$5.80 per share, a rating of neutral for Telstra and a price target of AU$4.80 per share, a rating of overweight for TPG Telecom and a price target of AU$3.70 per share, as well as a rating of buy for Superloop and a price target of AU$3.40 per share.