金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，针对近期市场关于“高铜价和高库存”背离的讨论，该机构认为目前库存读数偏高更多受COMEX囤货影响，LME和国内库存难言高企。考虑到持续溢价状态下的COMEX库存回流难度较高、LME库存主要为中俄货源，当前市场上有限的有效库存愈显脆弱，特别是在全球经济预期向上、经贸风险增加的大环境下。该机构预计Q4国内供需均环比走弱，但供给的下滑幅度更大，并将推动年底国内库存消费天数下滑至近五年均值以下（<10天）。每年年底去库至来年春节假期后的1-2个月，期间的铜价上涨具备充分的历史数据验证。随着11月中旬以来库存拐点已现，叠加降息预期升温和国内减产发酵，年内LME铜价有望加速迈向12000美元/吨。该机构预计2026年全球精炼铜供需分别增长1.1%/2.1%，推动表观供需平衡即陷入短缺，考虑囤货需求后的供给缺口有望进一步拉阔60%至45万吨。具体看两方面驱动因素：1）关税政策的不确定性与AI发展的高确定性共振，美铜囤货有望延续。2）国内减产终将落地，需求端增长放缓但难言逆风。
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.