港股异动 | 铝业股尾盘走强 淡季需求韧性依旧凸显 机构称铝价中长期建议保持乐观

智通财经
Dec 05, 2025

智通财经APP获悉,铝业股尾盘走强,截至发稿,中国铝业(02600)涨5.77%,报11.74港元;南山铝业国际(02610)涨3.69%,报44.94港元;中国宏桥(01378)涨1.94%,报33.64港元。

消息面上,申万宏源期货指出,当前海内外宏观情绪偏向利好,市场在等待美联储下周政策会议前的美国关键经济数据。最新公布的ADP就业数据显示,11月私营企业减少3.2万个工作岗位,为2023年3月以来最大降幅,远不及市场预期的增加1万个,增强了市场对美联储在下周会议上降息25个基点的预期。

申万宏源期货还指出,近期铝二次冲高主要受到白银和铜的跟随影响,长期看供应受限及低库存对于铝价下方构成了实质性支撑。需求面12月虽处于传统消费淡季,下游整体消费氛围趋弱,但并未出现大幅下滑的情况,需求韧性依旧凸显,铝价中长期建议保持乐观。

国泰君安期货表示,中长期来看,全球铝供应增长仍然受限,市场长期处于“紧平衡”状态。关键风险点在于印尼产能,印尼凭借便宜的煤电和铝土矿,正在规划相当一部分的低成本电解铝产能,但当前有确定性电力供应的产能投产规模或仍相对可控,印尼新增供应提速仍存疑。

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