MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
Germany CPI; U.K. GDP, industrial production, trade; no major corporate trading updates expected
Opening Call:
European stock futures rose early Friday. Asian stock benchmarks advanced; the dollar is flat; Treasury yields were mixed; oil futures rose; while gold fell.
Equities:
Stock futures pointed to a higher open in European markets on Friday. The DJIA and S&P 500 both scored record finishes Thursday, elevated by the Federal Reserve's rate cut and optimism about the economy.
"The Fed rate cut - even if there's been some hand-wringing about dissents - it helps nail down a constructive view of the economy," said Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
Investors have been growing increasingly wary about companies borrowing money for their AI buildout plans.
"Tech has had a really good year, but in the near term there's a lack of a catalyst," said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services, following Oracle's disappointing earnings. "The market is thinking: 'What other areas can we look at?'"
Forex:
Emerging markets may continue to see supportive financing conditions in 2026 due to a weaker U.S. dollar and likely more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, said Mohammed Elmi at Federated Hermes.
Dollar weakness has already been a major theme in 2025, he said, noting that the currency is down by around 8.2% year to date. "More rate cuts are likely to put further downward pressure on the greenback," he added.
Bonds:
The outlook for Treasury yields next year depends on diverging inflation forecasts, Ameriprise's Russell Price said. Some analysts see inflation hovering around 3%, which could hurt demand for long-term Treasurys, pushing yields higher, as it would raise the prospect of hikes down the road.
Others, including Price, expect inflation to fall close to 2%, making monetary easing more certain with little downward impact on demand for Treasurys. Price forecasts "pretty considerable and pretty rapid progress" on inflation. He expects the dollar to weaken 2% to 5%, as the Fed cuts rates.
Energy:
Oil futures rose early Friday. The International Energy Agency, which represents major oil-consuming nations, cut its forecasts for global oil supply growth to 3 million barrels a day this year and 2.4 million next year, from earlier projections of 3.1 million and 2.5 million barrels a day, respectively.
However, oil prices remain volatile, with Brent crude oil hovering in a range of $60/bbl-$65/bbl and weekly 4%-7% price swings that continue to signal heightened uncertainty, CIMB Securities analyst Nurzulaikha Azali said.
Metals:
"While silver has attracted speculative momentum on the back of the deficit narrative, gold's moves remain more tightly linked to the broader policy outlook and real yields," said Sucden Financial.
It expects gold to continue behaving as the more grounded barometer of macro sentiment, with upside likely capped unless the dollar weakens notably.
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Copper prices fell, weighed by subdued demand. In the near term, supportive macro sentiment is colliding with bearish industry fundamentals, Baocheng Futures said.
The Fed's dovish rate cut is supporting the overall sentiment for the metal, but rising copper prices are weighing on downstream demand, it added.
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Iron ore prices may be driven by macro sentiment in the short term, Nanhua Futures said.
Following a decline in prices, buying interest could offer support, capping downside pressure and easing volatility, it added. Further, a recovery in steel mill profitability and winter restocking demand should also limit declines in iron ore prices, Nanhua said.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
Hope for More Rate Cuts Is Tempting Buyers Back to Bonds
Investors are warming to bonds again, underscoring how hopes for further interest-rate cuts have boosted Wall Street's outlook.
Signs this week that the Federal Reserve remains open to reducing rates in 2026 have been welcomed by investors, who had been prepared for the central bank to deliver a "hawkish cut"-lowering its benchmark federal-funds rate but signaling strong reluctance to make further adjustments. Stocks have rallied alongside bonds, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Thursday climbing almost 650 points, or 1.3%, to a new record.
The Fed cut rates, but bitcoin didn't budge. What gives?
Bitcoin was mostly unchanged on Thursday, even as the Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut its policy rate by 25 basis points and signaled that it will begin injecting additional liquidity into short-term funding markets starting Friday.
Many crypto bulls had expected that another Fed rate cut would serve as a tailwind for the digital asset. Unfortunately for them, that didn't happen.
FTC Sues to Block Henkel's $725 Million Acquisition of Liquid Nails From PE Firm
The Federal Trade Commission sued to block Henkel from acquiring Liquid Nails, a competitor of its construction adhesive brand Loctite.
The deal would combine the two biggest brands of construction adhesives, hurting competition and leading to higher prices and lower quality, the FTC said Thursday.
Philippines Typhoon Survivors Sue Shell Over Its Role in Climate Change
A group of more than 100 Filipinos are suing British oil-and-gas giant Shell, claiming that its historical contribution to climate change from fossil-fuel production was a significant factor in causing a supertyphoon that battered the country four years ago.
The storm, which hit the Philippines in December 2021, caused the deaths of more than 400 people and nearly $1 billion in damage. Alongside the lives lost, hundreds of thousands were made homeless and lost their livelihoods.
Behind the Deal That Took Disney From AI Skeptic to OpenAI Investor
OpenAI's strategy team began its early November off-site gathering in the seaside community of Marina del Rey near Los Angeles with an intriguing guest speaker: Disney's top lawyer, Horacio Gutierrez.
Since OpenAI kicked off the AI revolution, Hollywood has eyed the AI industry with a tortured mix of excitement, wariness and hostility.
OpenAI Updates ChatGPT Amid Battle for Knowledge Workers
OpenAI on Thursday announced the release of GPT-5.2, calling the artificial-intelligence model its most advanced for professional knowledge work.
The release comes about a week after Chief Executive Sam Altman declared a "code red" effort to improve the quality of ChatGPT and to delay development of some other initiatives, including advertising. The company has been on high alert from the rising threat of Google's latest Gemini AI model, which outperformed ChatGPT on certain benchmarks including expert-level knowledge, logic puzzles, math problems and image recognition.
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Expected Major Events for Friday
00:01/UK: Nov Scottish Retail Sales Monitor
00:01/UK: CBI Economic Forecast
05:30/NED: Oct International trade
06:00/FIN: Oct Balance of Payments
07:00/GER: Nov CPI
07:00/ROM: Nov CPI
07:00/TUR: Oct Balance of Payments
07:00/UK: Oct Index of production
07:00/UK: Oct UK trade
07:00/UK: Oct Index of services
07:00/UK: Oct Monthly GDP estimates
07:00/SWE: Nov Labour Force Survey
07:30/HUN: Oct Construction
07:45/FRA: Nov CPI
08:00/SVK: Oct Employment and average monthly wage in selected branches
08:00/SVK: Oct Turnover in selected branches of economy, incl Industry & Construction
08:00/SPN: Nov CPI
09:00/BUL: Sep Trade with EU Member States - preliminary data
09:00/BUL: Oct Trade with third countries - preliminary data
09:00/CZE: 3Q Quarterly Balance of Payments
09:30/UK: Nov Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey
11:00/POR: Nov CPI
12:30/UK: Nov NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
16:59/GER: Oct Balance of Payments
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 12, 2025 00:07 ET (05:07 GMT)
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