民银国际:给予波司登(03998)买入评级 目标价5.80港元

智通财经
Dec 10, 2025

智通财经APP获悉,民银国际发布研报称,给予波司登(03998)买入评级,目标价5.80港元。该行认为公司股息率吸引,预计FY26保持80%以上派息率,现价对应FY26股息率约6.0%。预计公司FY26E-FY28E营收285.1/316.0/349.3亿元,同比分别+10.1%/+10.8%/+10.5%,归母净利润39.0/43.7/49.0亿元,同比+10.9%/+12.0%/+12.2%。现价对应26EPE为13倍。

民银国际主要观点如下:

FY26H1符合预期,波司登主品牌稳健增长,主动去库轻装上阵

FY26H1集团收入同比+1.4%至89.3亿元,归母净利润同比+5.3%至11.9亿元,利润增长快于收入。期末存货额同比-20%,主因公司放缓原材采购节奏+主动去库铺垫旺季,应收周转天数同比-4天至59天。

(1)分部收入中,品牌羽绒服同比+8%至65.7亿元。品牌羽绒服业务,主品牌增长好于其他,线下好于线上。FY26H1主品牌收入同比+8%至57.2亿元,批发/自营同比+8%/+7%,线上营收同比+2.4%。

(2)品牌羽绒服占比上升使集团利润率提升。FY26H1集团毛利率同比+0.1pp至50.0%,主品牌毛利率为64.8%,因1H批发增长快于自营及主动去库。

深化功能科技+时尚美学,多动力推动旺季动销,10-11月表现亮眼

(1)产品端,主品牌新品阵容强大,夯实功能科技+时尚美学,差异化竞争。期内户外极寒、小香风、泡芙创新系列增长亮丽,聚焦户外/休闲/商务/时尚四大场景,与国际顶尖设计大师合作。主品牌合作前顶奢创意总监KimJones推出Areal高端线、合作机能风设计大师ErrolsonHugh推出Vertex叠变三合一羽绒,市场反馈热烈。

(2)主品牌单店提质增效+1H存货有效去化+有利的销售周期(26春节晚于25年),有望推动折扣和毛利率改善,推动旺季动销。FY26H1主品牌净关67家,因精细化运营及打造Top店;雪中飞净增126个。

(3)据业绩会,FY26全年指引维持(收入同比+10%,利润增长快于收入);10-11月线下动销同比增长双位数,折扣同比改善。

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