骏利亨德森投资:美联储将以观望姿态进入2026年,等待新任主席到来

格隆汇
Dec 12, 2025

12月12日,骏利亨德森投资环球短存续期及流动性主管兼投资组合经理Daniel Siluk表示,美联储今年第三度降息,将目标区间下调至3.5%-3.75%,但讯息十分明确:预防性宽松的时代已经结束。在12月的声明中,美联储强调未来的政策动向将取决于数据,并将明确逐次会议作出利率决定。

主席鲍威尔在记者会上再次强调这一立场,指出委员会认为今日的降息是审慎的调整,而非新一轮循环的开端。经济展望摘要(SEP)同样展现“鹰派”基调,2026与2027年的增长预测略微上调,2026年的通胀预期略微下降,失业率在中期展望中保持稳定。此举反映美联储有信心通胀将降温而不破坏经济成长,同时也表明进一步降息的门槛极高。在鲍威尔强调耐心而委员会意见分歧的情况下,美联储将以观望姿态进入2026年,并等待新任主席的到来。

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