宏观专题 | AI泡沫进行到哪一步了?

天风国际
Dec 10

近期有关美股AI的分歧在增加。那么美股AI是否存在泡沫?如果存在,现在处于哪个阶段?其实自去年以来,美股AI就出现过了两轮泡沫分歧,也都造成了市场恐慌式抛售。第一次是去年7月,主要是scaling law遭到挑战,也即堆叠算力,提升参数和数据量,无法再线性的提升模型性能。对资源的边际收益下降。第二次是今年1月,中国推出Deepseek后,市场担忧美国AI的垄断地位受到动摇。高估值溢价的逻辑受到冲击...

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