有色金属聚焦:铜:美铜虹吸 需求前置 易涨难跌

中金公司
Dec 12, 2025

12 月以来,铜价结束震荡,再创新高。截至报告完成时,伦铜3 个月合约最高触及11,906 美元/吨。我们11 月发布的2026 年展望《新高之后》中曾提出需求侧的四点利好,即1)电气化、2)中国出口、3)囤库、4)降息。宏观上降息预期提升的利好,与微观上美国的库存虹吸力度是本次价格上涨的共同推手。而贸易商也在借纽伦价差之势进行“逼仓”交易。在美铜232 关税预期下,市场对美本土精铜供应不足的担忧...

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