摩根士丹利表示，如果欧洲央行明年维持利率不变，欧元可能会飙升至十多年来最高水平。

　　“如果欧洲央行政策平稳，同时结合我们对美国利率和风险溢价路径的假设，预计欧元兑美元将在第二季度升至1.3，”David Adams等策略师在报告中写道。

　　这一水平较当前的1.17高出11%，是2014年以来最高水平。

　　不过，摩根士丹利的基准情景并非按兵不动，而是预计到2026年年中将降息50个基点。

　　相比之下，市场在本周欧洲央行官员Isabel Schnabel发表鹰派言论后，越来越多地押注2026年欧洲央行将会加息。

　　Adams补充道，即便欧洲央行放松政策，欧元仍可能升至1.23，因美联储预计将继续降息，美元将普遍走弱。

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