美银:别再迷信60/40股债组合!未来十年实际收益或为负,黄金看至4500美元

华尔街见闻
Dec 11, 2025

美银策略师团队发布最新研究报告警告称,曾被视为投资界黄金法则的“60/40”股债组合策略,正面临未来十年极度疲软的回报前景。 美银预测,由60%股票和40%债券构成的经典投资组合,在扣除通胀因素后,明年的实际回报率将不足1%。更为严峻的是,该行模型显示,未来十年该组合的年化实际回报率预计为-0.1%,这意味着长期坚持这一策略的投资者可能面临实质性的资产缩水。 造成这一黯淡前景的主要原因在于美国...

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