【券商聚焦】中国银河:设备与材料在国产替代顶层设计下逻辑最硬 先进封测受益于技术升级

金吾财讯
Dec 10, 2025

金吾财讯 | 中国银河证券发研报指,半导体设备板块本周的下跌,系短期调整。上游晶圆制造大厂中芯国际月产能2025年第三季度晶圆月产能突破100万片大关,产能利用率环比提升3.3个百分点至95.8%,表明行业需求旺盛。长期来看,中芯国际的业绩验证了国产替代逻辑的强度和持续性,为设备板块提供了内在支撑。封测板块位于半导体产业链的后端,其表现高度依赖上游芯片设计和制造环节的景气。中芯国际联合CEO赵海军指出,存储大周期导致智能手机等终端生产厂商拿货态度趋于谨慎,短期内引发市场对封测订单未来增长稳定性的担忧。但是,赵海军也同时指出,这些短期难题均具备解决的可能性。长期来看,先进封装仍是提升芯片性能的关键路径之一,短期的市场波动不改产业的长期发展趋势。在半导体板块整体回调的行情下,数字芯片设计板块的表现相对稳定,仅下跌0.14%。AI算力芯片仍是板块的核心增长引擎,寒武纪海光信息等头部企业受益于AI服务器需求爆发,营收与利润双增。AI端侧芯片相关的核心公司瑞芯微等业绩表现也同样亮眼。长期来看,在“十五五”科技自立自强战略指引下,国产高端芯片的验证与导入进程有望继续加速,增量空间明确。本周半导体板块整体表现疲软,但支撑半导体板块长期发展的逻辑并未改变。在外部环境背景下,供应链安全与自主可控是长期趋势。设备与材料在国产替代顶层设计下逻辑最硬,数字芯片是算力自主的核心载体,先进封测受益于技术升级。

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